A股白酒板塊逆市上升，*ST春天漲4%，會稽山、*ST尼雅、泉陽泉、金種子酒、建發股份、金徽酒等跟漲。

Huatai Macro says markets have shifted from pricing dovish cuts to a more hawkish near-term stance after Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Fed chair. With forward guidance abandoned, expectations are highly split and pricing is more difficult; focus will move from words to actions. Based on past chair transitions, the current macro backdrop and Warsh’s need to build credibility, Huatai assigns a slightly >50% probability of a July rate hike (versus the market’s ~40%) and sees a near-100% chance of a hike before September. From the new-chair/market interaction, the aggregate cost of hiking in July may be lower.

A-share cinema and theatre sector rose in early trade as Huanrui Century was locked at the daily limit and Baina Qiancheng jumped over 10%; Bona Film Group, Huazhi Digital Media, Beijing Culture, Ciwen Media and Hengdian Film & TV also advanced.