At a July 29 regular press briefing, foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning was asked about a Bloomberg report that Germany is examining vulnerabilities in China’s supply chains to identify sectors that could rebalance bilateral trade. Mao said mutual industrial interdependence is normal in a globalized economy, described China and Germany as comprehensive strategic partners, and urged strengthened communication and cooperation to jointly maintain the stability and smooth functioning of global p

Huatai Macro says markets have shifted from pricing dovish cuts to a more hawkish near-term stance after Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Fed chair. With forward guidance abandoned, expectations are highly split and pricing is more difficult; focus will move from words to actions. Based on past chair transitions, the current macro backdrop and Warsh’s need to build credibility, Huatai assigns a slightly >50% probability of a July rate hike (versus the market’s ~40%) and sees a near-100% chance of a hike before September. From the new-chair/market interaction, the aggregate cost of hiking in July may be lower.

Italy May seasonally adjusted industrial sales MoM 0.6%, prior 0.3%.