Sell-side consensus is for the Fed to hold rates, with two hawkish dissents most
likely from Hammack and Logan and Kashkari a possible third. TD Securities, UBS
and BofA project a 10–2 or similar hold vote; JPM sees at least two hawkish
dissents (Hammack, Logan) and notes Kashkari could dissent. Danske Bank expects
2–4 members preferring a hike but not enough to change policy. Brown Brothers
Harriman and other houses model 10–2 hold; if Cook joins the hawks a 9–3 split
is possible. Pru expects 10–2 with Logan and Hammack favoring a 25bp hike and
warns that more than three dissents would materially raise odds of a September
hike. Hawk rhetoric remains firm: Kashkari projects one hike in 2026 and steady
rates in 2027; Hammack and Logan stress that inflation has not convincingly
returned to target and action may be needed; Governor Cook says she is prepared
to act if disinflation does not become clear. Prediction-market pricing: Kalshi
shows Hammack and Logan at ~58% each to dissent; Polymarket assigns 40%
probability to two dissents, 21% to one dissent and 13% to three.
