美國能源信息署（EIA）：美國中西部煉油廠的利用率上週升至2023年12月以來的最高水平。

Huatai Macro says the July FOMC hold has, to some extent, damaged Fed credibility—market inflation expectations rose and long-end yields moved higher. By contrast, June’s unexpectedly hawkish FOMC had tightened financial conditions, lowered inflation expectations and boosted Fed credibility. With energy prices rebounding, July’s pause may have led markets to view Waller’s zero-tolerance inflation rhetoric as bluff; post-meeting inflation expectations and long-term yields rose, signaling a partial loss of credibility. Huatai still assigns a relatively high probability of a September rate hike and keeps a baseline of 1–2 hikes this year and two more before mid-next year. Key risks: (1) Waller’s hawkish stance could be bluster; (2) an abrupt end to the AI-driven rally could tighten financial conditions and make further hikes unnecessary. Watch July–August jobs and inflation prints and Waller’s Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 27.

Markets now no longer fully price a Fed rate hike in September.