Shenwan Hongyuan says a Fed communication-framework reform would alter asset-pricing drivers rather than the policy stance, shifting markets from trading Fed rhetoric to trading data, scenarios and reaction functions. If the Fed stops providing forward guidance, the front end would become more data-sensitive while the long end would increasingly price term premium, inflation credibility and fiscal risk. Macro trading would move from guessing Fed wording to assessing the conditions that would tri

Shenwan Hongyuan says a Fed communication-framework reform would alter asset-pricing drivers rather than the policy stance, shifting markets from trading Fed rhetoric to trading data, scenarios and reaction functions. If the Fed stops providing forward guidance, the front end would become more data-sensitive while the long end would increasingly price term premium, inflation credibility and fiscal risk. Macro trading would move from guessing Fed wording to assessing the conditions that would trigger policy moves. In the near term the Fed is likely to hold: higher long yields and tighter financial conditions could slow the real economy and reduce the urgency to hike, and a trending down in inflation supports a pause. Markets should monitor the inflationary impact of AI-driven investment and AI’s effects on supply.