7月29日A股低於3%換手率股票佔比微降至70.34%，保持在2024年10月以來波動區間中部，5月以來整體呈現震盪略偏上行的狀態；高於5%換手率股票佔比爲21.25%，保持在4月21日以來新低附近，市場交投活躍度暫時低迷，不過仍保持在閾值上方。 -------- 注：1、當換手率低於3%的股票佔比上升，尤其是接近歷史高位附近（圖中虛線，圖爲反轉走勢）時，意味着市場很有可能遇到一個階段低點，容易產生反轉或反彈。 2、當高換手率高於5%的股票佔市場總數比例保持在閾值（圖中虛線）上方，市場纔會出現強的賺錢效應，使得行情具有持續性。牛市的時候，該指標會持續保持在閾值上方，市場迎來普漲行情；而熊市的時候，該指標大多時候在閾值下方，偶爾超過閾值反而要小心衝高回落的風險。

【國債期貨午盤收盤】2年期國債期貨（TS）主力合約漲0.02%，5年期國債期貨（TF）主力合約漲0.02%，10年期國債期貨（T）主力合約漲0.02%，30年期國債期貨（TL）主力合約跌0.23%。

Quarterly results highlight a bifurcation: Microsoft revenue +18% with a $678bn backlog and Azure revenue surpassing $100bn; Meta revenue +28%. Visible Alpha shows Microsoft capex growth has run hot for three years—average ~62% for 2024–26—well above Azure’s ~37% revenue growth; Meta’s Q2 free cash flow fell 91% as data-center spending surged. Analysts estimate 2026 capex for the four big cloud vendors (Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) at about $698bn, roughly equal to the projected free cash flow of four major chipmakers (NVIDIA, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron). The market takeaway: demand may not be the constraint—spending is. Investors will remain cautious until Microsoft demonstrates Azure revenue growth sustainably outpacing capex and Meta shows AI-driven improvement in margins and free cash flow. AI-driven cash is flowing to chipmakers while returns to large cloud players remain congested.