China government bond futures opened in the morning session: 2-year (TS main contract) flat; 5-year (TF main contract) +0.01%; 10-year (T main contract) +0.01%; 30-year (TL main contract) +0.07%.

Japan 20-year government bond yield fell 5bp to 3.615%.

Before the Fed decision the dollar index was flat amid unusually high outcome uncertainty. Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed to hold today but anticipate at least one dissenting vote for a hike, noting war-driven energy-price volatility clouds the outlook. Market pricing assigns roughly a 30% chance of a rate increase today; CME data shows investors have priced in a September hike. Goldman says if the Fed holds, FX markets will focus on how much previously priced-in tightening shifts to later meetings.