歐元區7月服務業景氣指數 4.7，預期3.8，前值由3.2修正爲4.2。

JP Morgan said after July's Fed meeting it now expects the Fed's first rate hike in December 2026, moving the forecast forward from H2 2027. Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said the new Fed chair's press conference again failed to explain how he will deliver on his stated anti‑inflation resolve and raised questions about whether the PCE price index will remain the Fed's inflation gauge. JP Morgan characterised the forecast shift as a warning about Fed credibility rather than market ‘pressure’, arguing the chair's ambiguous guidance could prompt other FOMC members to adopt a more urgent stance on price stability.

Quarterly results highlight a bifurcation: Microsoft revenue +18% with a $678bn backlog and Azure revenue surpassing $100bn; Meta revenue +28%. Visible Alpha shows Microsoft capex growth has run hot for three years—average ~62% for 2024–26—well above Azure’s ~37% revenue growth; Meta’s Q2 free cash flow fell 91% as data-center spending surged. Analysts estimate 2026 capex for the four big cloud vendors (Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) at about $698bn, roughly equal to the projected free cash flow of four major chipmakers (NVIDIA, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron). The market takeaway: demand may not be the constraint—spending is. Investors will remain cautious until Microsoft demonstrates Azure revenue growth sustainably outpacing capex and Meta shows AI-driven improvement in margins and free cash flow. AI-driven cash is flowing to chipmakers while returns to large cloud players remain congested.