TD Securities strategists say Eurozone HICP rose to 2.9% YoY in July; core
inflation was 2.5% and services inflation 3.3%, leaving limited evidence of
meaningful second‑round effects. Markets continue to price a 25bp ECB hike in
September, which TD retains as its base case. The firm says only a clear,
durable resolution of the Middle East conflict would materially alter that
outlook.
