Five former Trump administration officials say the White House has few good
options after Iran demanded control of the Strait of Hormuz as a condition for
ending hostilities. Senior U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Rubio,
have warned against any deal that would allow Iran de facto control of the
strait, saying it would complicate future U.S. sanctions enforcement by
requiring waivers for transit payments and would weaken international pressure
on Iran’s nuclear program; Rubio called it a dangerous precedent. Fractured
communications among Iranian factions further complicate negotiations. The
impasse arrives with U.S. midterms three months away and U.S. retail gasoline
averaging $4.10/gal versus $3.85/gal a month ago. Continued concern over U.S.
casualties, attacks on U.S. bases and ongoing Iranian missile threats to Gulf
states risk further upward pressure on energy prices. There is no sign of an
easy post-election exit. Danny Sitrenovitz, a non-resident Atlantic Council
fellow, said any diplomatic settlement could require some Iranian control of the
strait—politically unacceptable to many—while further military escalation would
likely keep oil prices elevated without guaranteeing Iranian strategic change.
