Bernstein rates SpaceX Outperform with a $239 PT but says the valuation hinges less on rockets than on whether AI compute can move to orbit. Its model assumes about 3,600 launches a year by 2031, roughly 170,000 satellites and about 20 GW of orbital compute. The thesis: terrestrial data centres face rising constraints on power, land and cooling; if Starship achieves rapid two‑stage reusability and sharply cuts launch costs, orbit could become a compute venue. Bernstein flags new bottlenecks — ch

Bernstein rates SpaceX Outperform with a $239 PT but says the valuation hinges less on rockets than on whether AI compute can move to orbit. Its model assumes about 3,600 launches a year by 2031, roughly 170,000 satellites and about 20 GW of orbital compute. The thesis: terrestrial data centres face rising constraints on power, land and cooling; if Starship achieves rapid two‑stage reusability and sharply cuts launch costs, orbit could become a compute venue. Bernstein flags new bottlenecks — chip supply, satellite thermal management, radiation hardening, communications and regulation — and notes the scale it models would demand about 2.8 mln wafers a year, or the equivalent of roughly five dedicated fabs. Conclusion: ground AI data centres remain the primary revenue stream this decade; orbital compute is a long‑dated option.