Rashid al-Mohanadi, vice chairman of the International Policy Research Center, said Iranian strikes have exposed the limits of external security guarantees and prompted Gulf states to assemble an autonomous security architecture. Since Iran’s first strike on Gulf territory in February, ceasefires have lasted only weeks and a summer memorandum collapsed within a month; pauses have been followed by drone attacks on critical infrastructure, closures of shipping chokepoints and renewed bombardment.

Rashid al-Mohanadi, vice chairman of the International Policy Research Center, said Iranian strikes have exposed the limits of external security guarantees and prompted Gulf states to assemble an autonomous security architecture. Since Iran’s first strike on Gulf territory in February, ceasefires have lasted only weeks and a summer memorandum collapsed within a month; pauses have been followed by drone attacks on critical infrastructure, closures of shipping chokepoints and renewed bombardment. Gulf air-defence systems intercepted most Iranian launches in February, but Iran still inflicted significant damage on civilian facilities and exposed maritime vulnerabilities. Gulf restraint, often read as passivity, is being pursued as a strategy built on credible defence that preserves communication channels, including with Iran. Gulf countries are structuring a four-layer security ecosystem: US/EU enablement, a GCC core force, a broader regional partnership (R4 mechanism including Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan) and a domestic defence-industrial base. Recent actions include a July 28 Saudi‑US joint airstrike on militia targets in Iraq and Saudi Arabia’s July 30 announcement of a 14‑nation maritime defence coalition to secure shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The measures signal a shift from relying on external security to “producing” indigenous security and reducing five decades of dependence on outside security arrangements.