SpaceX released its first post-IPO results; spending concerns pressured the
stock but major brokers stayed generally constructive. Morgan Stanley —
Overweight, PT $300; 2027 revenue forecast $102.0bn and expects annual recurring
revenue to top $100bn by end‑2026; warns that if compute pricing does not
normalize in Q4 2027, AI revenue could add about $42bn versus base forecasts.
Wells Fargo — Overweight, PT cut to $215 from $230; management sees ground
compute >8GW by 2027 but Wells models execution delays, forecasting +5GW in 2027
(vs +1.5GW in 2026) and a slowdown to +2.5GW in 2028 (prior 4.1GW). Deutsche
Bank — Buy, PT $235; raises forecasts on stronger near‑term AI‑driven growth and
a faster path to $100bn annual revenue, while noting recent share‑price
pressure. Goldman — Buy, PT $220; flags near‑term volatility from lockup
expiries and says medium‑term execution topics (Starship cadence, Starlink
broadband/mobile expansion, orbital compute) are unlikely to be resolved in
months. Citigroup — Buy, PT $200; highlights management accelerating a $1tn
revenue target to 2030 or possibly 2029, well above street 2029/2030 consensus
of roughly $232bn/$372bn. JP Morgan — Overweight, PT raised to $240 from $225;
says SpaceX is leveraging rocket and satellite engineering to scale data‑centers
faster than peers, cites partnerships with ANTHROPIC, Google and Reflection AI
plus a separate six‑month cloud contract starting in October; estimates long‑run
Vera Rubins pricing could reach $30–50/watt versus prior $11–16/watt. UBS — Buy,
PT $210; notes Starship progress, expects a Starlink revenue inflection as
~1,000 V3 satellites deploy, narrowing the gap with Grok, and forecasts 3–7GW
added next year implying total compute of 5–10GW+ by end‑2027 (vs prior ~4GW).
