CITIC Securities said the likelihood that the FCC’s rumored ban on Chinese
optical modules will be implemented in its current form is low, noting U.S.
market dependence on Chinese modules is a major barrier. Chinese suppliers have
grown global share and proven competitiveness via technology accumulation and
scale manufacturing rather than reliance on a single market. High China–U.S.
interdependence in the optical-communications supply chain means such
restrictions would raise procurement costs for North American cloud providers
and delay their deployment schedules as they decouple from large-scale Chinese
deliveries. CITIC said leading Chinese module vendors already have integrated
advantages across technology iteration, mass production and client
responsiveness in AI high-speed interconnects, leaving the ban subject to
significant practical industry resistance.
