烏克蘭緊急服務部門：哈爾科夫州遭俄方炮擊，造成1人死亡，36人受傷。

Refinitiv survey: economists expect US July headline CPI 3.4% YoY (June 3.5%); core CPI 2.5% YoY (June 2.6%). Citi economists say two consecutive months of softer inflation readings would effectively rule out a September rate hike. Citi nonetheless expects core services inflation to tick up 0.3% MoM in July after being flat in May–June. BofA analysts say a rebound in core services could keep a September hike on the table. BofA analyst Kate Duguid adds that if the latter view wins and inflation prints below expectations, a Fed hike could be delayed to December or later.

CITIC Securities said US-Japan joint FX intervention aims to prevent spillovers from sustained yen weakness. Japan’s inflation remains below the BOJ target, limiting willingness to tighten policy; Sanae Takaichi’s proposed tax cuts could widen Japan’s fiscal gap and erode confidence in yen assets. The US is concerned that yen stabilization or Japanese reductions in US Treasury holdings could, amid elevated US debt supply, push up long-end US yields. Short-term intervention should help stabilize expectations, but with US-Japan rate differentials still wide the scope for a sustained large yen rally is limited. The report adds that US equities retain clearer advantages over Japanese stocks on earnings growth, industry structure and the AI supply chain.