At an Aug. 10 results briefing, Haitong Development said rising short-term El
Niño risk is boosting summer coal demand but is disrupting Panama Canal transit.
Middle East tensions have lifted oil and gas prices and, combined with higher US
hydrocarbon exports, increased tanker traffic through the Canal. Daily transit
capacity is limited and congestion has already emerged; bulk carriers unable to
pay queue-jump fees have been forced to reroute. El Niño is also lowering Panama
water levels and reducing transit efficiency. The company expects congestion to
worsen after Sep. 2026 when the North American grain season and US soybean
exports ramp up. Looking to Q4, the end of the West African rainy season should
allow a sharp recovery in shipments.