Vanguard analyst Hicklin expects US July headline CPI +0.1% MoM, +3.3% YoY. The
print should be relatively mild as oil declines and stabilization in core goods
and housing weigh on inflation. Core goods inflation is expected to be flat and
remains on a multi-year disinflationary path after prior volatile re-pricing;
stable housing should help keep core inflation lower. By contrast, wage-driven
persistence is keeping ‘supercore’ inflation (core services ex-housing)
stubborn: that category was flat MoM in June but still +3.2% YoY. Hicklin warns
upside price pressure persists — especially with wages growing ~3.5% despite
high productivity — and he sees no sign yet of a material easing in core
services inflation’s trajectory.
