ECB documents show integration is expected to be "challenging and persistent" and note existing tensions and divisions.

Paul Masgrave, associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, says US military action has not produced expected results against Iran, turning the confrontation into a test of which side can endure longer. He says Washington’s and Tehran’s tolerance for economic or political pain depends on how much cost each is willing to accept to secure more favorable terms. Masgrave adds Iranian hardliners are unwilling to yield for fear of appearing weak and are seeking to inflict maximum humiliation on President Trump ahead of the US midterm elections. He also says the campaign has proved harder than Trump anticipated because US airpower, munitions and deterrence have so far failed to force the outcomes Washington sought.

OPEC monthly report maintains 2027 forecast for incremental supply from non‑OPEC producers at 620,000 bpd.