美國至8月7日當週EIA新配方汽油庫存 -0.3萬桶，前值0萬桶。

Societe Generale strategist Manish Kabra’s team says recent extreme swings in semiconductors and momentum trades reflect concentrated de-leveraging and hedge fund unwind, not a synchronous weakening of AI fundamentals. They assess South Korea’s most acute de-leveraging phase is nearing an end and US momentum strategies have seen large-scale reductions. Hyperscaler cloud businesses remain in a strong upcycle in the latest results cycle; order backlogs are up about 15% and have pushed AI capital spending roughly 10% higher. The team expects AI CapEx to continue accelerating into H2 2026, with a potential peak in H1 2027. Societe Generale advises distinguishing trading-driven de-leveraging—which has cooled—from the still-expanding industrial CapEx cycle; until hyperscaler free cash flow materially improves, hardware, infrastructure and supply-chain suppliers that directly capture AI CapEx are likely more direct beneficiaries than high-spend customers.

近期韓國股市在半導體去槓桿和高波動衝擊下大幅壓縮估值。彭博策略文章指出，KOSPI遠期市盈率已降至約5倍，僅相當於長期均值的一半。從估值隱含的盈利預期看， 當前價格大致相當於市場在計入未來企業盈利下滑約 50%；作爲對比，全球金融危機期間韓國企業盈利最大降幅約爲45%。 這種極端定價與韓國股市高度集中的結構有關：三星電子和SK海力士合計接近指數一半權重，科技股佔比約53%，因此半導體盈利預期和槓桿資金變化會被顯著放大。近期KOSPI自6月高點一度下跌約33%，三星和SK海力士貢獻了絕大部分市值損失。 但「估值便宜」並不等於盈利風險已經消失。當前韓國存儲龍頭仍受益於AI芯片需求併產生大量現金，同時行業仍在擴張資本開支。 因此，當前估值真正反映的是市場對半導體盈利高位能否持續的極端悲觀預期： 如果未來只是正常週期回落，而非接近金融危機級別的盈利坍塌，現有定價就可能存在過度折價；反之，如果AI和存儲週期快速逆轉，低估值本身並不能構成保護。