Russia's July crude output averaged 8.887 mln bpd, roughly 0.94 mln bpd below its OPEC+ quota of 9.824 mln bpd, the OPEC monthly report showed. The figure was only 6,000 bpd lower than the revised June average, but near-daily Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure — targeting refineries, tankers and other facilities — are disrupting processing and threatening exports. The sector faces these disruptions while global energy markets remain under pressure from the Middle East conflict.

REUTERS TANKAN shows Japan manufacturing confidence rose from 13 in July to 18 in August, the strongest reading since March 2026. Non-manufacturing confidence gained to 28 from 25, supported by robust domestic consumption. The three‑month outlook signals a moderation in sentiment. Semiconductor‑related demand is the main driver: sharp jumps in chemical and metal‑machinery subindices suggest strength in the semiconductor supply chain is spreading across Japan’s industrial base rather than remaining concentrated in a few chipmakers. The manufacturing index peak implies earlier global trade uncertainty that had weighed on chip‑demand exporters has largely faded. The transportation equipment index remained at 0, indicating the auto sector has not yet meaningfully benefited from the broader recovery.

National Australia Bank says it still expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold the cash rate unchanged for the remainder of 2026, with the first rate cut expected around mid-2027.