US–Iran talks have effectively collapsed and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed; Iran is using control of the strait as a bargaining chip, so transit is unlikely to be relaxed until there is a substantive improvement in Middle East geopolitics. Monitor strait navigation, Iranian plant run-rates and shipments for supply shocks. Trade bias: watch for buy-the-dip and cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities. On costs, cooling from mid–late August should cap any coal rebound, keeping cost pressure br

US–Iran talks have effectively collapsed and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed; Iran is using control of the strait as a bargaining chip, so transit is unlikely to be relaxed until there is a substantive improvement in Middle East geopolitics. Monitor strait navigation, Iranian plant run-rates and shipments for supply shocks. Trade bias: watch for buy-the-dip and cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities. On costs, cooling from mid–late August should cap any coal rebound, keeping cost pressure broadly soft.