Indian government sources said the US-proposed bill on Russian oil purchases is concerning, but progress in negotiations is reassuring.

An 83% majority of 69 economists polled expect the ECB to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bps to 2.50% in September; 80% expect the rate to remain at 2.50% through year‑end and 63% expect it to stay at or above 2.50% until Q3 2027. The share anticipating a September hike rose to 83% from 72% before July’s meeting and 65% in June, reinforcing consensus that June’s increase could be followed by another move. Nomura says sustained higher oil prices raise the risk of second‑round inflation effects; while the ECB can wait to see those effects it can also act preemptively, and a single small hike would look like a mere tweak—making a follow‑up move likely. Given June’s obvious choice, Nomura judges another rate rise highly likely.

US initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 8 rose to 209,000 versus a forecast of 202,000; the prior week was revised to 200,000 from 199,000.