Nomura strategists forecast the Riksbank will leave the policy rate at 1.75% in August and keep rates unchanged through 2026. Stronger domestic activity, Middle East-related energy risks and expected further ECB tightening (Nomura sees another ECB hike in September after one earlier this year) raise the probability of an earlier Riksbank hike; Nomura says these factors are unlikely to produce a pro‑hike vote in August but constitute a tail risk that a rate rise could occur sooner than its curren

Nomura strategists forecast the Riksbank will leave the policy rate at 1.75% in August and keep rates unchanged through 2026. Stronger domestic activity, Middle East-related energy risks and expected further ECB tightening (Nomura sees another ECB hike in September after one earlier this year) raise the probability of an earlier Riksbank hike; Nomura says these factors are unlikely to produce a pro‑hike vote in August but constitute a tail risk that a rate rise could occur sooner than its current December 2027 baseline.