EUR/GBP ticked up as ECB hawkish expectations supported the euro. ONS: June GDP +0.3% MoM (consensus 0.0); Q2 GDP +0.4% q/q, in line with expectations but below Q1’s +0.6%; YoY GDP +1.2% (consensus 1.1, prior 0.9). Standard Chartered says Q2 outturn exceeds the BoE’s July projection of q/q +0.3% but is unlikely to drive policy. Analysts flag inflation data (so far holding up) and a still-weak labour market as more important for rate decisions. With policy already viewed as restrictive, Standard

EUR/GBP ticked up as ECB hawkish expectations supported the euro. ONS: June GDP +0.3% MoM (consensus 0.0); Q2 GDP +0.4% q/q, in line with expectations but below Q1’s +0.6%; YoY GDP +1.2% (consensus 1.1, prior 0.9). Standard Chartered says Q2 outturn exceeds the BoE’s July projection of q/q +0.3% but is unlikely to drive policy. Analysts flag inflation data (so far holding up) and a still-weak labour market as more important for rate decisions. With policy already viewed as restrictive, Standard Chartered keeps its call that the BoE will hold rates this year. Traders are focused on next week’s UK CPI for fresh policy clues. At the last meeting most BoE policymakers said financial conditions had tightened since the Middle East war, providing "sufficient insurance" against inflation risk from higher energy prices.