8月13日，巴菲特指數（滬深300市值/GDP）回落至92.59%；股債性價比指標——滬深300指數股權風險溢價（ERP）爲5.26%，7月以來主要圍繞着5.2%波動，處於2024年10月以來波動區間下端，暗示目前股市相對國債收益的優勢一般。 -------- 注：1、巴菲特指數是通過將股市總市值和GDP來比較，判斷目前股市是否高估，通常70-100%爲正常估值，低於該區間爲低估，高於該區間爲高估。 2、滬深300指數風險溢價（ERP）主要對比滬深300收益和國債收益率，統計近10年數據可以發現該指標和股指有明顯反向關係，每次股市都處於底部區域時，風險溢價均超過6%，也就是當ERP≥6%，股市有投資性價比，而當ERP≤4%時，則股市往往接近或處於階段性高點，投資性價比低甚至要小心回調風險。

Goldman derivatives trader Shawn Tuteja says US equity sentiment reversed in two weeks from fearing the Fed, higher long‑end yields, geopolitics and supply to a 'either outcome is bullish' view on the September FOMC. Market reads a dovish‑leaning hike as stabilising the long end, and no hike as confirmation that strong earnings will broaden gains beyond AI. Client net exposures are at the 67th percentile over the past five years and total exposures at the 89th; SPX single‑day call volume hit a record ~4.0m contracts. Tuteja does not predict a large index decline but warns that when both policy outcomes are pre‑priced as positive, market cushioning against a hawkish surprise or renewed long‑yield upside is reduced, raising complacency risk.

Romania central bank governor said the Middle East conflict has exacerbated supply‑chain problems and affected fuel prices.