Nomura forecasts India’s 2026/27 fiscal deficit target of 4.3% could deviate by about 20bp (0.2pp) under its baseline. It expects the Reserve Bank of India to refrain from raising rates through the end of next year. Nomura says fiscal risks have eased since the peak of Iran-related tensions but still anticipate the ~0.2pp miss in the baseline scenario. Nomura projects FY growth at 6.6%; stronger Apr–Jun activity could lift GDP above that. Market sentiment has improved versus last year—greater co

Nomura forecasts India’s 2026/27 fiscal deficit target of 4.3% could deviate by about 20bp (0.2pp) under its baseline. It expects the Reserve Bank of India to refrain from raising rates through the end of next year. Nomura says fiscal risks have eased since the peak of Iran-related tensions but still anticipate the ~0.2pp miss in the baseline scenario. Nomura projects FY growth at 6.6%; stronger Apr–Jun activity could lift GDP above that. Market sentiment has improved versus last year—greater confidence in growth, fiscal metrics and current-account resilience, and reduced concerns about US trade friction. Some supply-side pressure is emerging but Nomura sees no sign of broad-based inflation.