Oxford Economics says Japan’s planned food consumption tax cut will widen the fiscal deficit and lift JGB yields. Economist Norihiro Yamaguchi estimates the cut would reduce annual tax revenue by about ¥5 trillion and is unlikely to be fully offset by other measures. The firm assumes part of the shortfall will be covered by non-tax receipts and spending cuts, but that roughly half will be financed by debt, pushing the primary fiscal deficit to about 3% of GDP. It expects the deficit to begin imp

Oxford Economics says Japan’s planned food consumption tax cut will widen the fiscal deficit and lift JGB yields. Economist Norihiro Yamaguchi estimates the cut would reduce annual tax revenue by about ¥5 trillion and is unlikely to be fully offset by other measures. The firm assumes part of the shortfall will be covered by non-tax receipts and spending cuts, but that roughly half will be financed by debt, pushing the primary fiscal deficit to about 3% of GDP. It expects the deficit to begin improving from 2029 as debt/GDP rises and fiscal consolidation intensifies. Oxford Economics forecasts 10-year JGB yields will rise to around 3% by end-2026, from roughly 2.8% today. Market reaction so far has been limited, but the firm warns markets will increasingly price in the fiscal impact as policy details emerge.