Russian Urals crude from west Russian ports to Asia normally transits the Red
Sea. Compliant tankers operating under Western constraints depend on P&I clubs
and war-risk cover; rising Red Sea risk has prompted insurers to tighten cover
and in some cases require insured ships to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb. Sanctioned
"shadow fleet" vessels, which use little Western insurance or maritime services,
are not bound by those insurer no-sail constraints and can continue to use the
shorter Red Sea route. The split is imposing higher insurance and rerouting
costs on compliant ships—detours around the Cape of Good Hope add several weeks
to voyages and materially raise freight—giving sanctioned vessels a marked
transport-cost advantage.
