A November New Zealand election may complicate RBNZ policy, but ANZ senior strategist David Croy says the central bank is still likely to raise rates in October. The RBNZ has signaled it wants to return policy to neutral; ANZ estimates the neutral rate at around 3% or slightly higher versus the current policy rate of 2.50%. Croy says with policy still accommodative and inflation above target, there is no clear reason to pause hikes — the burden is on the RBNZ to find a reason not to raise in Oct

A November New Zealand election may complicate RBNZ policy, but ANZ senior strategist David Croy says the central bank is still likely to raise rates in October. The RBNZ has signaled it wants to return policy to neutral; ANZ estimates the neutral rate at around 3% or slightly higher versus the current policy rate of 2.50%. Croy says with policy still accommodative and inflation above target, there is no clear reason to pause hikes — the burden is on the RBNZ to find a reason not to raise in October.