Brian Clark, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, says US scope to further
escalate a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz without exposing US
forces to major risk is very limited. He warned no war has historically been won
by air power alone. The remaining US military option would be to ‘‘open the
Strait’’ by using naval and air forces to escort commercial shipping — a step
Washington has so far avoided. Deploying warships to protect transits could risk
a reprise of the 1980s tanker war, with vessels coming under attack; the next
escalation would be ground forces. Before committing ground troops, the US may
attempt limited escort missions to signal Iran does not fully control the
Strait. Clark expects the standoff to end with Iran and Yemen exercising de
facto control via some form of charging for passage, while the US seeks a
diplomatic ‘‘fig leaf’’ to claim the issue was resolved without harming US
interests.
