Fitch unit India Ratings & Research (Ind‑Ra) forecasts India GDP slowing to 6.8%
in FY2026‑27 from 7.6% a year earlier, citing Middle East conflict‑linked fuel
and food inflation risks, a weaker rupee and potential El Nifio damage to
agriculture. Ind‑Ra’s quarterly profile is 6.9%/6.6%/6.7%/6.9% for Q1–Q4; the
Reserve Bank of India’s forecasts are 7.0%/6.4%/6.5%/6.8%. Ind‑Ra now assumes an
FY2026‑27 average oil price of $85/bbl (May view $95) and a rupee average of
93.98 per USD (May: 94.28), implying a 6.4% YoY depreciation. Ind‑Ra chief
economist Pant put the basket crude average at $101.31/bbl for Apr–Jun 2026 and
$96.49/bbl for Apr–Jul 2026. The agency said lower oil should narrow the
trade/current‑account deficit and support growth, but El Nifio‑driven inflation
could limit that upside.
