滬深兩市成交額連續第12個交易日突破2萬億元。

Goldman Sachs Delta-one head Rich Privorotsky says current rate pressure is increasingly a bond-supply problem. Recent US data has softened and pushed down short-end yields, but long-end yields remain under pressure as markets must absorb large sovereign deficits and potentially more than $1tln a year of AI-related capex increasingly financed via the debt markets. Privorotsky says markets will need higher real rates to absorb that supply, implying long-term yields may not fall even if growth weakens; the curve could remain split — short end driven by data and central bank policy, long end constrained by fiscal and financing supply. He flags an extreme scenario where a loss of anchoring at the long end forces the Fed to stay tighter amid weak data to flatten the curve and stabilise long-term rate expectations. He identifies the mid-term market’s biggest risk as long-end rates, not the timing of a single rate cut.

Goldman Sachs TMT trading desk says weekly implied US equity volatility is about 89bp, near a five-year low, with its panic reading at 0.36/10. The desk estimates option market makers hold roughly $15bn of positive-gamma hedges, near the 99th percentile, which biases dealers to sell into rallies and buy into dips and thus mutes short-term moves. It also estimates 96% of S&P 500 firms are in open repurchase windows and announced buyback authorizations exceed $1trln, implying corporate repurchases could absorb selling in summer’s thin liquidity. Macro risks remain—long-end yields are still rising and oil has resumed an uptrend—but derivatives markets are pricing very low near-term volatility. If dealer positive gamma and buybacks persist, US equity short-term volatility may stay suppressed; if those supports weaken, the current ultra-low vol will increase sensitivity to price re-expansion.