KPMG chief economist Yael Selfin said July CPI rose to 2.9% from 2.6% but is unlikely to prompt the Bank of England to raise rates, as domestic price pressures are easing and the print is broadly in line with the Bank’s latest projections. Core inflation continued to slow, with services inflation easing to 3.4% from 3.6%. Given a labour market that is less weak than in 2022 and limited pass-through from higher energy costs, she expects policy rates to remain on hold for the remainder of the year

債券收益率的急劇攀升正引發華爾街警惕：AI交易可能面臨新的金融壓力。週二，美國30年期國債收益率升至19年來最高水平，突破5.33%。這一趨勢也蔓延至海外：日本10年期國債收益率觸及30年來高位，德法30年期國債收益率則分別升至2011年和2008年以來最高水平。債券收益率持續走高，與市場對通脹頑固不降以及美國債務負擔不斷加重的擔憂有關。 投資者擔心高收益率可能抑制AI基礎設施建設這一美股關鍵引擎。企業已承諾投入數十億美元建設數據中心，AI相關股票因預期未來超高盈利而大漲，但利率上升將壓低這些遠期盈利的現值，借貸成本高企也會延後投資回報。 道富環球策略主管巴托裏尼表示，債券收益率上升會提高市場對未來增長進行估值時所使用的折現率。若利率大幅上升並持續高企，將衝擊那些大部分高增長預測在更遠未來的長期增長型股票。巴托裏尼指出，AI資本支出初期由超大規模企業和技術巨頭以自有資金推動；隨着週期推進，這些公司轉而依賴發債融資。這一轉變使其財務狀況對債券收益率波動更爲敏感——收益率上升將推高債務成本、壓縮現金流。 小型AI參與者面臨更大生存壓力。D.A. Davidson科技研究主管盧里亞表示，借貸成本上升將使AI數據中心項目更難啓動，整個行業承壓。但影響不均：微軟、亞馬遜等巨頭因業務多元、回報穩健而具備緩衝；而CoreWeave、甲骨文等更依賴債務融資的參與者，其風險敞口更大，將面臨更嚴苛的市場審視。盧里亞指出，“對債務依賴型公司而言，低迴報與高借貸成本使其處境更爲脆弱，利率的細微波動都可能動搖其數據中心擴建計劃。”

AI-driven demand for semiconductors and other components has underpinned growth in Malaysia and Singapore, while Vietnam remains the region’s fastest-growing large economy. Thailand and the Philippines are weakening as energy costs spike from the Middle East conflict; the Philippines is further hit by a sharp pullback in infrastructure spending. Economies with firms tied to AI-related tech supply chains are proving more resilient; those reliant on imported energy are losing momentum. DBS Group economists said: "Growth divergence depends on domestic resilience to the Middle East crisis and the degree of reliance on tech exports in trade structure."