S&P says the likelihood of lower volatility in the memory chip market has increased and that long-term contracts will generate material revenue.

高盛Delta-one交易臺主管Rich Privorotsky認爲，全球資本正在被政府融資和AI基礎設施投資同時大量吸收。 預計AI年度資本開支可能超過1萬億美元，而且越來越多依賴債務市場融資。與此同時，主要經濟體仍維持鉅額財政赤字，公共部門和AI正在爭奪同一池資本。 這種資本競爭已經開始傳導到非AI經濟。Privorotsky指出，政府通常缺乏主動削減支出的動力，因此更高實際利率帶來的調整壓力，可能更多落在私人部門。他認爲，這或許已經體現在大盤估值下修中： 股價表現弱於EPS預期修正本身所能解釋的程度。 消費端也面臨類似壓力。Privorotsky在報告稱，財政刺激此前已經前置，關稅後的庫存重建大體完成，部分需求也已提前釋放。隨着更多資金涌向數據中心和AI基礎設施， 非AI行業的融資、投資和估值環境可能繼續承壓，市場分化也會進一步擴大。

Mizuho Global Markets co-head said the Bank of Japan could hike as soon as September and may raise the frequency of policy adjustments from roughly every six months to quarterly. Yen weakness and rising inflationary pressure are prompting faster action; Mizuho does not rule out two hikes before year-end that could lift the policy rate to 1.5%. Markets price a 78% chance of a Sept. 18 hike. Mizuho will keep a conservative JGB strategy, focusing on inflation-linked bonds and short-dated paper. The 10-year JGB yield has climbed to a 30-year high but remains below Japan’s roughly 4% nominal growth; global structural shifts and investment growth could push Japan’s neutral rate higher and inflation risks are skewed to the upside. On FX, U.S.-Japan joint intervention signals both sides oppose further yen depreciation, though the currency’s weakness partly reflects BOJ easing. Mizuho views Japan as undergoing a multi-decade economic transformation; equities remain attractive but market volatility may increase.