US outstanding public debt has doubled since 2017. Of the increase, $11.6 tln was added during Trump’s two presidential terms and $8.4 tln was added during former president Biden’s term.

Bond sell-off has eased and U.S. long-term yields fell, though markets still face the risk of higher borrowing costs. A confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil near $90, adding to inf concerns. Rising government debt and heavier issuance to finance data centers have heightened fixed-income volatility. Tonight’s 20-year Treasury auction will test demand for long-term paper. The 30-year yield slipped to 5.19% from Tuesday’s 5.284% settlement; the 10-year fell to 4.62% from 4.706%.

高盛TMT交易臺指出，本週美股隱含周度波動約89bp，處於約5年來最低水平，其恐慌指數僅爲0.36/10。與此同時，高盛交易臺估算， 期權做市商目前持有約150億美元的正Gamma對衝倉位，處於歷史99分位。 這類倉位會讓做市商在市場上漲時傾向於賣出、下跌時傾向於買入，相當於給短期波動加了一層減震器。報告同時估算，96%的標普500公司已經進入股票回購開放窗口，已公佈回購授權超過1萬億美元， 企業回購需求也可能在夏季薄流動性環境下幫助吸收賣盤。 當前長端收益率仍在上行、油價重新走高，宏觀擾動並未消失，但衍生品市場對短期波動的定價已經非常低。 只要Dealer正Gamma和企業回購仍然提供緩衝，美股短期波動可能繼續受到壓制；若這兩層支撐減弱，極低波動率本身也會提高價格重新放大的敏感度。