JP Morgan now expects the BOJ’s next rate hike in September (previously October), adds a further move in December and raises its 2026 year‑end policy rate forecast to 1.5%. If the government’s fiscal stance does not change materially, JP Morgan projects additional hikes in April, July and December 2027, taking the year‑end policy rate to 2.25%. Markets have largely priced a September hike; a BOJ delay could raise volatility. JP Morgan’s underlying inflation gauge has risen into the mid‑2% range

JP Morgan now expects the BOJ’s next rate hike in September (previously October), adds a further move in December and raises its 2026 year‑end policy rate forecast to 1.5%. If the government’s fiscal stance does not change materially, JP Morgan projects additional hikes in April, July and December 2027, taking the year‑end policy rate to 2.25%. Markets have largely priced a September hike; a BOJ delay could raise volatility. JP Morgan’s underlying inflation gauge has risen into the mid‑2% range and fiscal expansion increases concern the BOJ is falling behind the curve; current policy rates remain low relative to economic fundamentals, implying a faster normalization path than previously assumed.