DALY said the Fed remains well positioned to monitor incoming data.

摩根大通認爲，日本央行正面臨一個越來越難處理的政策循環。隨着日元貶值壓力上升，央行可能需要提前加息； 但如果9月加息被市場理解爲對匯率下跌的直接回應，投資者可能繼續押注後續更快加息，反而提高政策預期的不確定性。 這種風險在當前環境下尤其突出。日本央行6月剛剛加息，如果9月再次行動，間隔只有三個月，明顯快於此前“逐步加息、觀察經濟影響”的節奏。摩根大通認爲， 一旦市場形成“日元越弱、央行越要加息”的定價模式，後續加息節奏可能越來越受到市場壓力推動，央行也更難穩定預期， 這會提高日元和日本國債對匯率波動的敏感度。摩根大通因此預計，日元貶值可能推動日本央行在9月和12月連續調整政策，貨幣政策正常化由此進一步前置。

US Treasury official Bessent said the cap on a single bond buyback could exceed $4bn, partly as a signal that yields do not reflect fundamentals. The Treasury may announce stepped-up fiscal consolidation and Bessent said the deficit has very likely already peaked. He dismissed a $40 trillion debt headline as not especially meaningful and said markets are somewhat overreacting. Any balance-sheet changes would be coordinated with the Federal Reserve, he added, and interest-rate decisions are unrelated to buyback choices. Market indicators point to lower inflation ahead. A press briefing on Iran-related economic sanctions is scheduled for next Monday.