德銀指出，布倫特原油上週累計上漲6.63%至94.39美元/桶，更值得關注的是遠期曲線也在同步擡升。12個月期布倫特期貨週五升至79.16美元/桶，創兩個月高位，已經接近5月伊朗衝突期間83.58美元/桶的階段高點。市場正在重新計入霍爾木茲海峽長期關閉、能源價格維持高位的風險。 這種擔憂已經傳導到通脹定價。美國1年期通脹互換上週上升34.5bp至2.24%，創3月以來最大單週升幅；歐元區1年期通脹互換也上升25bp至2.71%。同期10年期美債收益率上行4.2bp至4.73%，10年期德債收益率上行5.4bp至3.26%。 這意味着能源衝擊正在從現貨價格向未來一年的通脹預期擴散。財政部擴大長債回購可以階段性緩解收益率壓力，但只要油價遠期曲線繼續維持高位，債券市場就仍需要爲更高的通脹不確定性定價。

At a routine briefing Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s threat to impose secondary sanctions on countries trading with Iran would only escalate tensions and hurt global economic and financial stability. Lin noted China is a major buyer of Iranian oil, called for restraint and a return to dialogue, and said China will closely monitor developments and take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

Iran deputy foreign minister Gharibabadi on the 24th wrote on social media addressing U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, saying Bessent's remarks are contradictory. He noted that if the U.S. has already claimed to have dismantled Iran's military capability, destroyed nearly all military factories and “buried” Iran's nuclear program, why is a so‑called “largest‑ever financial offensive” against Iran necessary? He added: “Is this a victory, or an admission of U.S. failure?”