布倫特原油日內跌幅擴大至3.00%，現報87.67美元/桶。

According to UK media, Kremlin adviser Andrei Fedorov warned that sharing British-made cruise missile component design drawings with Ukraine could prompt 'quasi‑military' actions against UK drone manufacturers and factories. He said such attacks may occur and could be carried out by 'unknown sources' rather than Russia. The comment coincides with British prime minister Burnham saying he plans to travel to the US next month with European leaders to lobby President Trump on Ukraine's defence needs, and follows the UK's transfer of Storm Shadow cruise missile component design drawings to Ukraine to enable domestic production.

Hedgeye guest Daniel Lacalle says US explicit debt (~$40 tln) is headline-grabbing but not necessarily the first crack. Official US estimates put the present-value shortfall for Social Security and Medicare at about $95 tln over 75 years—roughly 5% of the cumulative PV of expected GDP—and federal debt in 2026 is forecast at about 101% of annual GDP. By contrast, euro-area hidden fiscal liabilities are at least as large as headline debt: the European Commission estimates net accrued public pension liabilities at about 150% of GDP and total pension promises at roughly 371% of GDP after future contributions; this excludes most future health and long-term care costs. Several large euro-area states have unfunded commitments exceeding 300% of GDP. Political resistance to spending cuts, French sovereign yields now above Italy's, and negative real returns on euro-area sovereign assets since 2021 have reduced investor appetite. Lacalle warns the next sovereign shock could originate in the euro area because member states borrow in a currency they do not control and reported debt follows the EDP headline measure rather than total public-sector liabilities. He adds recent global bond selling signals markets believe central banks can no longer mask fiscal imprudence; US Treasuries remain the global monetary and collateral benchmark, but euro-area fiscal risks are comparatively larger.