Policy decision may be settled at the 11-TH HOUR. Of 22 economists surveyed, 14 expect a 25bp hike on Thursday to 3.0%; eight expect a hold. The BANK OF KOREA will release updated projections likely to support further tightening. Stronger-than-expected exports and domestic demand make a material upward revision to 2026 growth above May’s 2.6% likely; the inf forecast is also likely to be revised up from May’s 2.7%, driven by higher oil, earlier won depreciation and a semiconductor-led pickup in

Policy decision may be settled at the 11-TH HOUR. Of 22 economists surveyed, 14 expect a 25bp hike on Thursday to 3.0%; eight expect a hold. The BANK OF KOREA will release updated projections likely to support further tightening. Stronger-than-expected exports and domestic demand make a material upward revision to 2026 growth above May’s 2.6% likely; the inf forecast is also likely to be revised up from May’s 2.7%, driven by higher oil, earlier won depreciation and a semiconductor-led pickup in investment and consumption. Officials could point to the won’s recent rebound to justify delaying an immediate hike; if the bank holds, markets would likely push the next-rate-expectation to October.