After Canadian prime minister CARNEY announced reciprocal measures to newly imposed U.S. tariffs, the Trump administration is discussing further trade sanctions on Canada, a WHITE HOUSE official said. The official said possible steps could include higher tariffs and other trade actions, and that the administration expects to respond; the president has a range of tools available if U.S.-Canada trade talks break down.

Market consensus: core PCE YoY prev 3.3% (Reuters survey 3.3%). Majority of surveyed institutions expect YoY around 3.2–3.3% (Capital Economics, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Scotiabank, Barclays, Societe Generale, Standard Chartered and others at ~3.2%; BofA, Deutsche Bank, UBS, JP Morgan, Nomura, Morgan Stanley and multiple others at ~3.3%). High Frequency Economics is the notable outlier at +3.4%. Monthly core PCE prev +0.1% (Reuters +0.2%); consensus centered on +0.2% (BofA, Capital Economics, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, HSBC and many others). A smaller group expects higher monthly prints: BNP Paribas SA, JP Morgan and Banco Santander at +0.3%, and High Frequency Economics at +0.4%.

IMF managing director GEORGIEVA said a renewed rise in oil prices could push up inf, forcing central banks to maintain a tight policy stance.