National Australia Bank (NAB) now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate in September after July CPI surprised on the upside, driven mainly by a surge in fuel costs. NAB economists said July inflation is more severe than the RBA anticipated in early August and noted the RBA’s MPC has recently signalled it would act if upside inflation risks materialise. NAB forecasts a 25bp September hike to a 4.6% cash rate.

2026-08-27

National Australia Bank (NAB) now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate in September after July CPI surprised on the upside, driven mainly by a surge in fuel costs. NAB economists said July inflation is more severe than the RBA anticipated in early August and noted the RBA’s MPC has recently signalled it would act if upside inflation risks materialise. NAB forecasts a 25bp September hike to a 4.6% cash rate.