Brazil's finance minister said debt rollovers are under pressure, but despite various difficulties the refinancing process is proceeding smoothly.

War has outlasted initial U.S. expectations and pushed oil and gasoline prices higher; Strait of Hormuz still underwrites roughly 20% of global energy shipments, raising shipping and transport cost risk. U.S. political fallout: Trump’s approval has fallen from 40% to 33% and only 31% of Americans support the war, a negative for Republicans ahead of closely contested midterms. Global growth and inflation: IMF has trimmed its global growth forecast from 3.3% in January to 3.0%; higher energy and transport costs have raised near-term downside risk, though lower energy intensity and strong AI and capex investment have blunted a 1970s-style shock. Iran’s military capacity: U.S. strikes have severely degraded Iranian forces—U.S. reports cite destruction of 161 Iranian naval vessels, roughly 82% of Iranian air-defense systems rendered inoperative and Iran’s air force largely sidelined—but Tehran retains the ability to launch missiles, drones and disrupt shipping. Regional risk: Analysts say attacks have increased Iran’s propensity to use asymmetric strikes against Gulf targets, raising economic and security uncertainty for Gulf states. Nuclear program: U.S. and Israeli strikes have damaged known nuclear sites and killed scientists; U.S. assessments say Iran’s breakout window has been extended from as little as six months to as much as one year, but the IAEA cannot account for about 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—meaning delay, not guaranteed elimination, of a weapons pathway. U.S. force strain: The U.S. has lost 42 military aircraft and drawn down key interceptor stocks (Patriot interceptors ~65% expended; THAAD interceptors at least 38% depleted), while redeploying fighters, ships and carriers from Europe and the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, reducing available capacity in other theaters. Domestic Iranian stress: food inflation hit about 128% YoY in July, increasing internal economic and political fragility.

日本至8月21日當週買進外國股票 -8690億日元，前值13913億日元。