Tokyo core CPI excluding fresh food rose 1.8% YoY in August; core-core CPI (ex
fresh food and energy) rose 2.0% YoY and headline CPI rose 1.9% YoY. This is the
third consecutive month of acceleration, with price gains concentrated in
education, recreation and healthcare-related items. Tokyo is treated as a
leading indicator for nationwide inflation but metro data can be distorted by
local government measures. The persistent uptick reinforces the Bank of Japan's
case for a September rate hike; OIS-implied odds of a September move are about
82%.