Swap-implied odds of a mid-September Fed rate hike have moved above 50% after Fed chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his determination to curb inflation. The move pushed policy-sensitive US two-year Treasury yields to their largest gain in over two months. Institutional bond managers, including ABN AMRO Investment Solutions and Brandywine Global Investment Management, said they remain skeptical that rhetoric alone will prompt a rate increase. ABN AMRO CIO Christophe Boucher said he is avoiding long-du

Swap-implied odds of a mid-September Fed rate hike have moved above 50% after Fed chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his determination to curb inflation. The move pushed policy-sensitive US two-year Treasury yields to their largest gain in over two months. Institutional bond managers, including ABN AMRO Investment Solutions and Brandywine Global Investment Management, said they remain skeptical that rhetoric alone will prompt a rate increase. ABN AMRO CIO Christophe Boucher said he is avoiding long-duration bonds because they are vulnerable to concerns the Fed may be unable to control inflation, and warned the Fed's policy reaction function remains unclear; if Warsh does not back a September hike while inflation stays stubborn, market worries about Fed credibility could resurface. The ultimate decision will hinge largely on this week's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation prints.