Goldman warned attacks on refineries in the Middle East and Russia and the Russia–Ukraine war are tightening the global refining market, and raised its diesel refining margin forecasts by more than twofold. The bank said refinery outages are running about 60% above seasonal norms, pushing product margins to new highs with diesel at the center of the move; refined-product inventories are declining despite some demand erosion. Goldman now expects next-year average diesel refining profit versus Bre

Goldman warned attacks on refineries in the Middle East and Russia and the Russia–Ukraine war are tightening the global refining market, and raised its diesel refining margin forecasts by more than twofold. The bank said refinery outages are running about 60% above seasonal norms, pushing product margins to new highs with diesel at the center of the move; refined-product inventories are declining despite some demand erosion. Goldman now expects next-year average diesel refining profit versus Brent of $63/barrel in the US (prior $27) and $49/barrel in the EU (prior $19).