BofA Securities said market-implied odds of a September Fed rate hike rose to near 60% after Fed Chair Kevin Walsh’s Friday speech, but further tightening still depends on August economic releases. Analysts cautioned a very weak August print could reverse expectations; absent a sizable downside surprise, the burden for a September hike falls on Walsh. The August employment report is due Friday; July’s employment reading was noticeably softer than forecasts, prompting some economists to question

美國至8月31日3個月國債競拍-投標倍數 2.77，前值3.08。

Germany's 10-year Bund yield touched 3.31% intraday on Aug. 31, the highest since 2011 and roughly 20 bps below the 2011 peak of about 3.49%. August CPI rose to 2.9% YoY, driven by a 10.5% jump in energy while core inflation eased to 2.4%, suggesting recent pressure is energy-led. The Bund selloff has been amplified by higher oil, a global long-end bond selloff, and expanded German infrastructure and defence spending with larger planned issuance. Sustained higher yields would raise government and corporate funding costs and lift equity discount rates; even if energy inflation fades, increased sovereign supply and a higher term premium could prevent a return to zero or negative rates.