The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 4.75% intraday on Aug. 31, the highest
since January 2025. Refinitiv reported that after Walsh's hawkish Aug. 28 speech
the two-year yield jumped 12.8bp and the 10-year rose 5.6bp in one day,
signaling rate-hike expectations as the immediate catalyst; renewed US–Iran
exchanges and oil near $90 added to energy-inflation concerns. The sell-off is
not just trading higher inflation: as of Aug. 28 the 10-year breakeven was about
2.31% and the real yield about 2.34%, while the 10-year term premium had risen
to roughly 0.87%, implying markets are demanding higher real returns and extra
compensation for fiscal, supply and rate risk on long-dated Treasuries.
