Harlan Ullman, chairman of Killowen Group and a retired senior US navy officer who served in the Gulf, said Washington’s operational constraints and a dwindling set of military targets make further US strikes on Iran likely to remain limited. He said the Trump administration appears intent on keeping strikes very limited to avoid escalation and is relying primarily on economic strangulation; whether Iran can hold out or US domestic political pressure forces talks is uncertain. Ullman warned that

Spot gold fell below $4,360/oz, down more than 2% intraday.

RaboResearch said energy prices have continued to rise, yet U.S. and European 5y5y inflation expectations remain roughly anchored at central-bank targets. The correlation between energy moves and long-term inflation pricing is weakening; markets currently appear to trust central banks to keep long-term inflation anchored. RaboResearch offers an alternative: long-term inflation expectations may be shifting to reflect central-bank credibility, fiscal policy and institutional risk more than short-term oil shocks. It highlights fiscal-dominance risk — if markets doubt central-bank independence, long-term inflation pricing could undergo a sudden, non-linear institutional repricing. For markets, the current stable 5y5y supports policy credibility; but if energy stays elevated and fiscal risks rise, whether long-end inflation expectations and term premia remain muted will be the key watchpoint, and long-dated USTs’ reaction to oil/inflation shocks may better reveal if anchoring still holds than monthly CPI prints.