Ebury head of market strategy Matthew Ryan said rising gas prices amid escalating US-Iran tensions, together with Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rising to 3.3% in August, make an ECB rate hike in September near-certain. He noted core inflation fell to 2.4% in August from 2.5% in July—back to February levels before the Iran conflict—and said there is still little evidence energy price gains are passing through to core inflation. Ryan warned that while a September hike looks likely, further moves

Ebury head of market strategy Matthew Ryan said rising gas prices amid escalating US-Iran tensions, together with Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rising to 3.3% in August, make an ECB rate hike in September near-certain. He noted core inflation fell to 2.4% in August from 2.5% in July—back to February levels before the Iran conflict—and said there is still little evidence energy price gains are passing through to core inflation. Ryan warned that while a September hike looks likely, further moves to push rates into restrictive territory are far from certain, which could limit EUR/USD upside given markets have already priced in aggressive additional tightening.